Direct answer
A scenario shows what follows mathematically if supplied assumptions hold. It is not a forecast unless uncertainty, evidence, calibration and validation support that claim.
Practical steps
- Expose every baseline and rate.
- Create low/base/high assumptions owned by the user.
- Separate volume, conversion and value.
- Compare actuals and revise.
Common mistakes
- Using universal CTR as truth.
- Hiding assumptions in an AI score.
- Ignoring capacity, lag and attribution.
Limitations
- Organic demand and rankings are volatile.
- Simple scenarios omit correlated uncertainty.
Primary sources
- Creating helpful, reliable, people-first content — Google Search Central; 2025-12-10; 2026-08-14.